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Sunday, June 1, 2008

What’s the dilly-o with Ubaldo?

Chiggity check that rhyme. I could be the next ‘Nilla Ice. Alright, stop. Collaborate and listen. I is back with a brand new post. The subject of said post: the enigma that is Ubaldo Jimenez.

U-Ball Pic

We all know he is talented as frick. He is the sixth hardest throwing starter in all of baseball this year. To paraphrase former Colorado Rockie Eric Byrnes, his slider breaks from one dugout to the other dugout. Of course, he also has the slow curve that is about 20 mph slower than his fastball. Seems like these pitches (mixed with a show-me change up) would add up to a lot of strike outs, right? Uh… no, not right. He is averaging 7.36 strikeouts per nine innings, which puts him just barely over league average. Just to accentuate his lack of strikeout ability, he walks people all over the place—leading to a scary 1.45 strikeout to walk ratio. If, to quote our dear, crazy, possibly alcohol-fueled color commentating George Frazier, he “throws the dog snot out of the ball,” he should be able to strike out a batter or six. Instead, inexplicable starter Yorvit Torrealba has a mound visit with U-ball and serenades him with Metallica, singing “give me fuel. Give me fire. Give me that which I desire.” U-ball promptly unloads scintillating coruscations of aliphatic hydrocarbons on the batter, and the batter walks or gets a hit. In fact, he is so good at letting batters walk or get a hit, he does it more often than all but four starting pitchers. That puts Jimenez very close to Barry Zito and his yoga-powered fastball.

You may be thinking, “WTF, brah? He was hella bangin’ last year.” If you are thinking that, go back to your frathouse. If you are thinking that U-ball is extremely talented and had a relatively successful major league season last year, coupled with some decent years in the minors, then read on, sir. First of all, he is undoubtedly a rarified talent. If you disagree wiff dat, you need to cut down on the cough medicine, you crazy kids. What are you thinking putting drug dealers out of business? As for his relatively successful first major league season, it was very relative. For you ERA proponents, his ERA was just below league average. That’s aight, homeslice. His 4.06 walks per nine innings, however, were not aight. He also was rocking a .269 batting average against on balls in play, i.e. he was heavily aided by luck and good defense (this season, it has RocketManned up almost 100 points). So that slightly better than average ERA was somewhat misleading, and this season seems to support that. Thricefoldishly, his decent minor league seasons highlight his hamartia (K/BB ratio). His best performances (’04 and ’05 at high-A and ’06 at AA) all came with him striking out more than a batter per inning. If you can’t throw the ball across the plate, you gosh darn better make sure the hitters are swinging at your wildness. Take Edinson Volquez for example. He walks more people than Ozzie Guillén drops f-bombs. He also has struck out more batters than anybody in professional league baseball. Coincidentally (but actually the exact opposite of coincidentally), Volquez leads the NFL in ERA. If U-ball could parlay his ridiculous stuff into some strikeouts, he might find his ERA drop like it’s hot.

Those are basically my theories on why Jimenez is a coin toss that usually comes up crap—few strikeouts, many walks, BABIP catching up with him—all of which are relatively obvious if you watch him pitch. There are some positive signs, however, outside of the obvious—his insane stuffage. As I spoke of before whilst referencing a 1997 Harland Williams movie, his BABIP has increased dramatically (up to .353). The upside of this is that it should revert to the mean (somewhere in the .290-.300 range for Jimenez). That’ll help him cut down on his Zito-esque WHIP and along with that should come a decrease in the amount of runs he allows. Another thing Jimenez has going for him is his ground ball percentage. Last season it was a weak 46.4%. This year he has upped it to 57.3%, which is good for sixth best amongst all NHL starters. This is good. Now, if he could only decrease his walks and strike more guys out, he could be the Hancock of pitchers. I suppose that’s a big if. Though he is but 24 years of this world. He’s got some years to Figure It Out.

Today’s Random Quote:

“Do you remember when we used to dance and incidence arose from circumstance? One thing lead to another we were young and we would scream together songs unsung.” – from “Heat of the Moment” by Asia

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