Wow, I'm like the Bill Paxton of Windows Paint.As you, me and most indigenous tribes deep in the Amazon who have never spoken to the outside world have heard, Matt Holliday has been traded to the Oakland Athletics for Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street.
Allow me to preface this by saying that the Rockies are my #1 favorite baseball team. But... the A's are my #1a. I love them nearly as dearly as my beloved Rockies. So, I have watched, rooted for and read about all four players very extensively. Luckily for me, I can't lose here. For both teams, and their fans, there is plenty to lose. So, I will look at this trade as objectively as I can for both teams, player by player.
Matt Holliday
He's the face of the franchise and has been the team MVP for two years running (at least by my count). Losing him is not an easy thing for the Rockies. That being said, he was on his way to free agency and a contract that would exceed the GDP of every country in the European Union combined. Now, I think people realize the 2007 Disney movie that was the Rockies team is over and the credits are through rolling. It isn't financially viable for the Rockies to buy Scott Boras a new beach-front house with a Holliday contract. That's why the Holliday firesale occured and O'Dowd picked the highest bidder, which turned out to be the A's. What the A's get is an established right-handed bat in a heavily left-handed lineup. He has one year with the A's in 2009 and then heads into free agency. The A's aren't dumb enough to pay one corner outfielder $25 mil a year well into his mid-thirties, no matter how good he is. Billy Beane is essentially playing real estate agent here. He will probably leverage the crap out of Holliday and see if he can't Sabathia him into a greater return than what he gave to the Rockies. If he can't find a deal, he'll let Holliday go to the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Mets or anyone else who can overpay him, while Beane collects his two first round draft picks. There is, of course, a relatively decent chance that the A's (Holliday's Godzilla bat in tow) can overtake the overrated and aging Angels in the AL West and be a contender. If this is the case, they may pay Holliday to stick around and be their franchise as they finalize a move to Fremont, but this is very unlikely. Holliday is basically a new, and valuable, trading chip for Billy Beane, probably not much more.
Carlos Gonzalez
This guy craps talent and pisses ability. He can play average to decent center field right now (and exceptional right field when Dexter Fowler is ready) and he has the potential to hit 30 home runs. A good center fielder who can hit 30 home runs is about as common as a an uninjured Broncos running back. When you find a player with that ability, you grab on and hold tight. That being said, CarGon (or C-Gon) is very unrefined. He has suspect plate discipline (0.16 BB/K ratio in his major league stint), which is probably why Beane traded him. In the minors, he didn't consistently display his talent in the stat column (career .813 OPS in the minors). Still, his talent is hard to match. His speed, power and arm strength all grade as well above average and his arm is exceptional. What O'Dowd has gone for in CarGon is pure, unadulterated talent. He could be a better fielding Grady Sizemore, or he could be a talented bench player who can't seem to put it together. CarGon is by no means can't miss, but if he's a hit, he'll be an out of the parker. It is a ballsy move by the gambling O'Dowd.
Greg Smith
Nibbles, as he has been unaffectionately called, is a soft-tossing lefty that won't blow you away, but will be effective. His fastball averages 87.6 mph, but he can place it where he wants. Probably his best pitch is his cutter/slider that ranges from 80-86 mph. He'll also serve up a passable change-up and a pretty good hook. Nibbles has outstanding command of all of his pitches (except maybe the curve). His problem, though, is that he spends too much time trying to place each pitch on the black (hence the nickname). In the minors, he rarely walked people (2.64 BB/9), but in the majors he got preoccupied with nibbling at the corners and gave up 87 free passes in 190.1 innings. He can strike people out, but he's no Tim Lincecum, so he can't get to caught up placing everything right on the edge of the plate. At the same time, Coors Field is not going to keep balls in the park like the Coliseum. His 34.2% fly ball rate and 45.5% ground ball rate are not particularly good signs for Smith. He may be watching a lot of big flies from the mound. That being said, he is a much better back end of the rotation guy than Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales. A rotation of Cook, Jimenez, Francis, Smith and De La Rosa/whoever wins the job is much improved over last year's. Smith won't be flashy or exceptional, but he will eat 190+ innings and give you a chance to win. Expect a 4.50 era out of him, but many a home run. P.S. Though it is not much more than ancillary, Greg Smith has one of the best pickoff moves in baseball.
Huston Street
The rumors are saying that O'Dowd wants to turn around and deal Street elsewhere. I'm inclined to agree. Streeter was a great pitcher. Was. And Buchholz and Corpas are capable late relievers. Let's play a game. It's called Fastball Velocity and Our Economy: Plummet Away...
2006 - 91.7 mph
2007 - 90.4 mph
2008 - 90.0 mph
Now let's play Walking Batters and NFL Fines: Soar to the Heavens...
2006 - 1.66 BB/9
2007 - 2.16 BB/9
2008 - 3.47 BB/9
Streeter is by no means a bad pitcher, but he is also showing signs of decline. O'Dowd more or less picked him up for his reputation. If that is the case, and he turns around and trades Street for something better but less reputable, then, for the first time in my life, I will commend Dan O'Dowd for his baseball intelligence (but it will probably be the only time). If the Rockies keep him, Streeter will be a functional but expensive (he has two years left of arbitration raises) reliever. If the Rockies trade him for good players, well done O'Dowd.
Conclusion
Basically, Billy Beane picked himself up a fancy and expensive house. He's going to paint it, maybe refurnish the kitchen, and pitch it to someone else for a higher price. Beane got O'Dowd to buy in on CarGon's potential and Streeter's reputation. Nibbles is a throw in that will hold a rotation spot, but not really excel. Holliday will net the A's either two first round picks or multiple prospects that will be as good (but at more needed positions) or better than CarGon, Streeter and Nibbles. This is probably a loss for the Rockies and a win for the A's. Who knows though? Perhaps CarGon will be the next Sizemore/Beltran and Smith will be the second coming of Tom Glavine, while Street picks up other good prospects. At this point, though, O'Dowd should put a for sale sign on Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton, and see what he can get. Helton would be salary dumping, while Koshansky fills his spot. Atkins and maybe Street could get a very good return package (obviously, it's time for Ian "Do You Think I'm Sexy" Stewart to play third). Maybe throw in Willy Taveras and the Rockies will have cleaned up a bit of a mess and moved on for their next push at a playoff run (maybe 2010). Hawper in left, D-Fowl in center, and CarGon in right could be quite an outfield. I guess we'll have to wait and see if O'Dowd didn't get fleeced.
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